Professor Hugh White - China in Australia's
Future
Those attending CEDA's State of the nation have heard
predictions that a power struggle between China and the United
States was likely and that it poses significant risks for
Australia's economic prosperity.
Australian National University Professor of Strategic Studies Hugh
White told State of the nation attendees that the rise of China and
America's response would "change Australia's international
situation in ways that will be fundamental to our future economic
prosperity".
Professor White highlighted that we have lived through the most
peaceful 40 years in modern history and that Australia has got used
to taking for granted that the international situation posed no
serious constraints - but said that that optimism may be
punctured.
China's rise and America's response raises very serious issues for
our economic prosperity. America has been the dominate power in
Asia since the Vietnam War and America's position as leader of Asia
has been uncontested, Professor White explained.
However, he said while he believed China also wanted peace, the
rise of China means they no longer believe the US can be the only
dominate power.
Professor White said at the very least China will want equal
placing.
The important question he said was, if China wants a bigger role
and the US wants to stop them, how does it end?
He highlighted that if anyone thought that they would launch into a
strategic competition without thinking about where it ends, they
hadn't read enough history and he said it was huge risk to
Australia "not only because it was happening right on our doorstep
but because it was between our biggest ally and our biggest trading
partner".
Professor White predicted that "some time in the next few weeks the
Australian Government will announced a program of significantly
enhanced military cooperation with the United States to support
United States forces in the Western Pacific.
"The most likely form of this will be in the prepositioning of
military spares and stores in Australia to support US military
operations in the West Pacific, it may also include expanded
training and exercise facilities in Australia and there's a chance,
just a chance, it might actually include the basing of US forces in
Australia - most likely marines."
He said this would probably be couched as two old friends working
together in isolation and nothing for anyone else to worry about,
but it would signal Australia's support for the US.
The big question he said was how would China react?
"I know they're not going to like it and I think there is a very
clear risk they will respond and I do hope our government has
thought of this."
Professor White said the government had probably thought there is
not much China can do because it relies on trade with us, as much
as we do with them. However he said this underestimated their
options and our vulnerabilities.
He said one possibility is that China could direct investment away
from Australia.
"The welfare of a very large number of Australian companies now
depends on the increasingly slender chances that we can preserve
the kind of peace and stability in Asia that has made the growth in
our markets in north-east Asia possible, we can't take that for
granted," he said.
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